Pre-Fab on a Large Scale

Shaping Tomorrow is a web resource for futurists. Here is a recent abstract written by:

Author
Sheila Moorcroft, Research Director, Shaping Tomorrow

Abstract
Could the announcement that a large part of the 2012 London Olympic Stadium may be deconstructed and sent off to Chicago for the 2016 Olympics trigger renewed interest in offsite, pre-fabricated construction techniques? Possibly yes; but a lot of regulation will need to change.

What is Changing?
Housing markets are in turmoil and house-builders' share prices under pressure. However, there are still long term pressures for change, and the crisis may focus minds on the need for new approaches in order to meet rising expectations and demand.

Housing shortages and unaffordable houses in many areas are forcing a rethink on how we enable lower paid workers to live where they need and want to. Rising energy costs are driving demand for greater efficiency in running costs - more insulation and eco-friendly design. Growing numbers of floods and other environmental disasters need quick solutions to meet housing needs. Mass customisation and personalised design in more and more markets, from sports shoes to cars, mean that we have rising expectations of getting what we want.

Construction techniques that enable easy assembly but also 'relatively easy dis-assembly and reuse' could be the answer.

However, prefabricated housing has a bad image in some countries - especially the UK and the USA, although new entrants and demonstration projects may be beginning to change the game. Elsewhere, it is a different story: pre-fabricated houses from makers such as Toyota and Panasonic are upmarket homes in Japan; in Sweden nearly 70% of new builds are pre-fabricated.

Why is this important?
With share prices low, construction companies may be ripe for takeover by companies willing to take a longer term view. It may also be the right time to innovate ready for the upswing, when it comes. The result may be major new entrants.

Whole life costing and environmental pressures are forcing new approaches to evaluating projects and production techniques in many sectors; and in the case of the Olympic Stadium, legacy issues too. Flexible use, re-use and redefinition of use of office or other space may become a key component of design and planning - from the outset.

But, for radical change - even for those pre-fabricated homes already on the market to be able to sell effectively - regulations, especially in the USA and the UK, and concerns about insurance and other non-technical barriers need to be removed.

Zerohouse image provided by Specht Harpman